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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability ebook

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability



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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache ebook
Format: pdf
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 9780470725221
Page: 496


Black swans aren't guaranteed—they're the opposite of guaranteed: low probability and unpredictable. A little effort with prioritisation not only brings the fuzzy front end into focus, it also speeds up the end to end delivery and the most critical feedback loop of them all: from Idea to Information. On paper it's an even less likely event, but the probability of the condition being met is high in the context of a tail event. 7 days ago - Rather than leading the emergency, top priority effort to adopt the regulations to end the criminogenic environment in finance, OMB remains a leader of the effort to prevent effective regulation. Nov 30, 2010 - Everyone wants to hedge against the black swan event, the nightmare scenario. In the first leg of a two part investigation, Theo Casey asks On the other end of the phone is a PhD-toting City expert well known in a growing niche - tail risk management. Bottom line: not a report of the intellectual Thu, 06/16/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Yen Cross · Yen Cross's picture. Mar 1, 2010 - I have long been a big fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable." Personally, I think it should be While the book has NOTHING to say about information security directly, it's focused on how we as humans perceive probability and risk, the tools we have created to measure and manage probability and risk, and why we do not anticipate the most significant events that will occur. (The “Black Swan” author pretends that there is an exogenous distribution but that we have failed to count the really bad parts of distribution accurately. Jun 16, 2011 - Additionally, SocGen also provides a risk map with a black/white swan distribution curve, which identifies the biggest growth outlook downside and upside risks. Jan 26, 2014 - Whilst it is trivial to imagine the possibility of the market moving up or down, we do not know the probability of the direction and even less about the magnitude. Confidence is an apt word to use here, since our estimates of . Thu, 06/16/2011 - 04:50 | Link to Comment falak pema · falak pema's picture. Though he prefers not to be named, he was . A Black Swan is an event that is:. Are more likely to contain the diamonds we are looking for. Dec 9, 2008 - Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the idea in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Sep 8, 2010 - The mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb came up with the Black swan theory to address when rare and improbable events have a huge impact on people's lives and the world in general. Once upon a time I knew a "Black Swan".

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